Face masks, hand sanitizer, stock-piling, self-isolation and now a stock-market crash. The COVID-19 pandemic is beginning to affect every aspect of our lives, and this looks set to include England's favourite pastime, the beautiful game.
Several sports, including football, have already begun to suffer as a result of COVID-19. Precautionary measures have already been implemented in Italy, and similar responses may be executed in the UK.
Reaction in Italy
Outside of China, Italy has been the country most severely affected by COVID-19, reporting 9,172 cases and 463 deaths, as of today. The Italian government took action on 4 March 2020, ensuring that all sport in the country would be played behind closed doors for a month. As the situation in Italy has deteriorated over the last week, the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte yesterday confirmed that all sporting events would be cancelled in the country until 3 April 2020.
Will the UK follow?
The spread in the UK has not yet been as devastating as it has in Italy, but Public Health England (PHE) has warned that widespread transmission of COVID-19 is "highly likely". Sports governing bodies are in the process of discussing the possibility of staging events behind closed doors. Following the emergency Cobra meeting yesterday, Downing Street confirmed there was no need to cancel sporting events at this stage.
However, as the UK remains in the first phase – "containment" – of the government's four-part plan to tackle COVID-19, there is the expectation that measures to delay the spread of the virus with social distancing are not far away. It is, therefore, possible that similar action will eventually be taken to that we have seen in Italy. With the prospect of games being played behind closed doors, the FA will likely allow the screening of 3pm fixtures; a small silver lining for those needing entertainment whilst self-isolating.
Could Euro 2020 derail the Premier League?
There is also a concern that individuals within a football club could test positive for COVID-19. This could then require all players and staff of that club, to self-isolate for the NHS-recommended two week period. Were this situation to materialise, it would be highly problematic as there are fixtures scheduled almost every week up to the end of the Premier League season on 17 May 2020.
The logical solution would usually be to wait until the end of the season and play the remaining fixtures then, providing the risk posed by COVID-19 had lessened. However, it is not that simple. With the European Championships scheduled to begin on 12 June 2020, international teams will plan on beginning their training camps before the end of May. The FA Cup Final, Europa League Final and Champions League Final are all scheduled to be played after the Premier League season and before the start of the European Championships. This means there is virtually no time to shoehorn in any postponed Premier League fixtures after the scheduled end of the season.
A nightmare scenario for the Premier League would be teams being unable to complete their fixtures, and the European Championships taking place as planned. This would be unprecedented, and there is no protocol in place to deal with a situation as extreme as this. As such, it is likely the Premier League will make scheduling changes where necessary to ensure all the fixtures are played before the end of May.
Will the clubs suffer?
Yes. If matches are forced behind closed doors, Premier League teams will lose their match-day revenue, which will hurt their bottom-lines. Juventus is already suffering from playing in empty stadiums as tickets sales accounted for 11% of its total revenue of $674 million in 2018/19.
And it could get worse. If games are cancelled completely, will clubs seek to exercise "force majeure" clauses in contracts with sponsors and TV rights' holders or otherwise terminate or vary contracts with the Premier League? This could lead to a raft of complex contract litigation. And it would likely limit clubs' revenue even further. For more information of 'force majeure clauses' see Howard Kennedy's article here.
Could it get to stage where clubs are struggling to pay players' wages and/or finance obligations related to their stadiums?
Potentially, yes. Clubs in Hong-Kong are begging the authorities to allow games to be played behind closed doors and have warned if no solution is found, they could fold. Chan Ping, the secretary of league champions Wofoo Tai Po has stated, “We have never come across such a disastrous situation, no fans, no venue, no income".
Outlook for football and beyond
With Number 10 accepting that COVID-19 will spread in a significant way, we can be sure that football in the country will suffer. The extent to which the virus will take hold of one of the nation's most loved sports remains uncertain. Nonetheless, the prospect of sporting fixtures being played behind closed doors and/or being postponed seems increasingly likely. If these severe measures are taken, then clubs may bear the brunt, taking a financial hit.
And the ramifications of COVID-19 will spread far beyond football. Six Nations rugby games have already been postponed; the Shanghai F1 Grand Prix postponed; even the Olympic Games could be cancelled for the first time since 1944. The wealth held by elite football clubs may give them more of a buffer than other sporting organisations. However, they are global businesses operating in markets around the world and are therefore particularly vulnerable to global economic trends.
Clubs, players and fans alike, as well as those businesses ancillary to the footballing industry, will be hoping the government can bring COVID-19 under control and ultimately kick it into touch.
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